Israeli Strike Tests Syria’s Emerging Security Balance
The attack on Abu al-Duhur has brought Israeli, Turkish and Syrian security concerns into sharper focus and tested Washington’s efforts to prevent them from colliding.
An Israeli strike on a military airbase in north-western Syria has exposed a disagreement with Washington and heightened tensions with Turkey over security arrangements in the country.
Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib province on August 18, damaging its runways and other facilities. No casualties were reported.
Israel said it acted after receiving intelligence that Turkey was preparing to deploy forces at the base, which it regarded as a threat to its security. Turkey and Syria have denied that such a deployment was planned.
Tom Barrack, the US special envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, said Washington had examined Israeli concerns and concluded that a Turkish deployment was not taking place. He also said neither the US nor Turkey had been given advance warning of the strike.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz disputed Barrack’s account, maintaining that Israel had intelligence indicating preparations for a Turkish presence and that warnings had been communicated through relevant channels.
The conflicting accounts point to a broader challenge in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad: how Israeli security concerns can be reconciled with Damascus’s developing military relationship with Turkey.
Ankara has become an important security partner of President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government. Turkey and Syria signed a military co-operation agreement last year covering training and technical assistance as Damascus seeks to rebuild armed forces weakened by more than a decade of war.
A Turkish delegation visited Abu al-Duhur shortly before the Israeli attack to examine reconstruction work at the facility, according to Syrian officials. Ankara says no Turkish personnel were stationed there and has rejected Israeli claims of a planned military build-up.
Israeli officials have said they will not accept military deployments in Syria that could threaten the country’s security. The issue has become more sensitive as relations between Israel and Turkey have deteriorated.
Since Assad’s fall in December 2024, Israel has repeatedly struck military infrastructure inside Syria and maintained forces in territory entered following the collapse of the previous government. Israel says its actions are necessary to prevent threats from developing near its borders. Syria has condemned the operations as violations of its sovereignty, while Turkey says its co-operation with Damascus is intended to strengthen Syrian state institutions.
Barrack said the absence of advance communication before the Abu al-Duhur strike created a risk of miscalculation. Turkish officials, uncertain about the purpose of Israeli aircraft approaching an area close to their border, could have been forced to consider a military response, he said.
“The unintended consequence of a mistake could be really consequential,” Barrack warned.
The US is working on a more formal deconfliction mechanism involving Israel, Turkey and Syria to improve communication over military movements and reduce the risk of an unintended confrontation.
Syria’s changing regional position has made that task more complicated. Under Assad, Israel’s security concerns in the country centred largely on Iran, Hezbollah and weapons transfers through Syrian territory. Iranian influence has since diminished substantially, while Turkey’s relationship with the new authorities has given Ankara a greater role in Syria’s reconstruction and security.
Al-Sharaa’s government regards military co-operation with Turkey as part of rebuilding the Syrian state. Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani has said Syria values Turkish assistance and has no intention of abandoning that relationship.
Damascus has simultaneously pursued US-mediated security negotiations with Israel. Al-Shaibani said on Sunday that he expected those talks to resume despite what he described as a lack of trust between the two countries.
Syria wants an agreement that would end Israeli military operations and eventually lead to the withdrawal of Israeli forces from territory entered after Assad’s fall. Its continued engagement with both Ankara and Israel suggests Damascus does not regard the two relationships as mutually exclusive.
That leaves Washington trying to reconcile the interests of three governments with which it has important relationships. Israel is a longstanding US security partner, Turkey is a Nato ally, and the Trump administration has backed efforts to stabilise Syria’s new government and reintegrate the country into regional diplomacy.
The immediate crisis at Abu al-Duhur passed without casualties or a Turkish military response. Expectations that Syrian-Israeli security talks will resume also suggest the strike has not closed the diplomatic track.
But the episode exposed an issue that will increasingly shape those negotiations: how Syria’s developing security partnership with Turkey can coexist with a future security arrangement with Israel.